IS IT MAYDAY, LACKADAY, OR HAPPY DAYS?

 Is it Mayday, Lackaday or Happy Days?

Things aren’t going so well in the UK.

We’re getting close to panic which would mean crying “mayday.” We’d prefer to be regretting where we are but putting up with it which would be “lackaday.” But “happy days” are some time in the future I’m afraid.

It’s become something that’s up to us to deal with – you and me - in the absence of the prospect of any kind of strategic leadership from the embattled government and hesitant opposition. We’re in, as I’d call it, a “leadershit crisis”. 

So what can we do? Get angry, get involved, make a noise, talk to other people about it, meet and quiz our MPs, but, most of all, conduct our businesses and affairs in a much more resolute and positive way. Finally try to ignore all the media because with their short termism and over reaction they get in the way of progress.

Here are my ten personal strategies to consider in making us feel a little better:

1. Resilience. We need to build our resilience to setbacks. In retrospect the reactions to Covid were excusable as nobody quite knew what we were dealing with. But the lockdowns have had an irreparably negative impact on our behaviour and our response to risk. We seem to try to avoid it totally instead of trying to understand it and manage it. We cannot thrive in a “cottonwool” world. But that’s what we created between 2000 and 2022. We simply  mustn’t do that again.

               

2. Optimism and positive thinking. By all means let’s be optimistic. Being upbeat is good, but we shouldn’t get drunk on optimism. Boris Johnson had only one gear which was “boosterism” and self-promotion.  As PM it didn’t work, couldn’t work and he became a shameful figure. He’s given optimism a bad name.  Tough but positive thinking is a more acceptable  way of describing optimism right now.

                  

3. Realism. The journalist Matthew Parris is often wise and his plea that we squarely face up to painful truths about taboo subjects like the NHS, are words of wisdom. We  can still be positive in the face of danger (apart from many politicians who seem terrified of the whips, number 10 and losing votes). Getting to the truth, painful or otherwise, is always our strongest way of solving problems. 

                  

4. “The people” can be wrong. They were wrong in 1933 in Germany and in the UK in 2016.  The lesson of Brexit was assuming a democratic vote was stronger than truth. Too many of us accepted the will of the people ahead of the lies they were fed. Worse - the issue was too serious for a weak Prime minister to rebut so he didn’t fight the nonsense. We’ve suffered deservedly. But being intelligent and pragmatic we can resolve the issue. Being smarter economic partners of Europe would be a sensible start to recovery despite the crossness that would get from ardent Brexiteers.

            

5.  It isn’t easy. Spurn people who offer what I call “superglue solutions,” solutions that work instantly and apparently permanently. When anyone says “it’s very simple, quick and easy to fix” disregard them. My wife says I used to say this a lot. No more. Life is just a little bit too complex now as Ms. Truss discovered to her (and our) cost.

  

6. Momentum is vital. If you’re in business try to create momentum and a sense of movement, news and action for your brand and your company. If you aren’t in business just refuse to get stuck in a rut. In business, momentum is something the big “supertanker” businesses find hard to create. So beware if you’re a big “supertanker” brand or market leader. Watch out for competitive, nimble destroyers, small and agile craft who have less to lose and lots to gain. 

            

7. Get to work. I’m currently reading more about our mental health than productivity. Yes, of course mental health matters but so too does productivity. Since lockdowns my sense is we’ve become just a bit lazy. After Covid the people  who were economically inactive grew significantly, many of whom were unlikely to work again. Many of these had long term heath issues but many didn’t. Surely we must all improve our work ethic to make ourselves more successful.  

              

8. Your customers – love them. The customers you have or have recently gained are more precious than those you hope to get. Customer loyalty is a prize too many businesses disregard (to their cost). Loyal customers need special attention especially when, as it is now, the going is tough for them - as well as you. Don’t relax your love, care and attention for them. They need you, not just your products. The harder you try to build your relationship with them the more of them you’ll keep. On a more personal level don’t take anyone for granted – your spouse, your relatives or your friends. It’s time to refresh friendships.

                

9. Be better not wacky. We hear a lot about the need for innovation nowadays, probably too much talk and not enough action given our collective, dismal track record in investment. But continuous improvement (this is the Japanese concept of Kaizen which stands for continuous improvement through evolution not just innovation) is what we really need. Breakthrough innovation is unusual and often resembles a solution seeking a problem rather than vice versa. Let’s focus on getting better not just getting interestingly different. After all “New Improved” has always been a compelling sales claim.

10. Make a resolution. 2023 should be our year for breaking the insidious grip of “doom-loop thinkers” with our own tough, positive thinking – “pragmatic optimism” if you like to call it that. It’s not the year to retrench, slow down or seem weak. One of the long term effects of Covid has been to undermine our ambition, make us lose our nerve and leave it to opportunists to make money. Happy Days will come, possibly by 2024 if we manage to be resolute, invest in the future and have self-belief in what we do. And remember pragmatic optimism. Pessimists just hate it. But so do competitors. On the other hand those close to you at work or at home should love it. 

               

         Happy New Year and remember hard work works.

"CRISIS. WHAT CRISIS?"

This is what appeared on the front page of the Sun referring to the then Prime Minister, the laconic Jim Callaghan, during the so called Winter of Discontent in 1978.

44 years later we’re back again to the “C” word. Friday’s Times headline was ”Britain slides into Crisis.” Note, not Crashes, not Plunges but Slides. There’s a  graceful inevitability to sliding but there’s only one direction to slide…down. And in the context of economic recession there’s a subtext…a slide isn’t sudden it’s a progressive state often caused by inattention. 

Growing inflation and recession have been inevitable for most of this year so there are no surprises here. It’s not just Britain that has its problems, Europe is struggling towards recession too with Italian debt the highest on record and France and Germany both struggling to cope. Most worrying of all is the Chinese economic slump and especially the issues with a mortgage-repayment- revolution. It smells a bit of 2008.

Read Ian Williams – “The Fire of the Dragon” which is just out. A reviewer for the Daily Mail called it “a devastating exposé.” Chinese ambition for global domination mixed with internal discontent and an economy in trouble is a caustic cocktail.

So what can we do? Apart from being worried, frightened or just angry.

Our own slide into crisis is an acceleration owing to sleepy, eye-off-the-ball government plus the pandemic, Ukraine and Brexit. The global picture isn’t our concern  right now. That blaze down the road can be sorted out when the fire in our own home’s been extinguished.

I recently helped in a recruitment process of young, recently graduated Financial Analysts. The candidates were well qualified, gifted, high-achievers with positive attitudes to life. They were impressive. I was uplifted.

The biggest lessons they discussed were the resilience of human beings and the positive outcomes that crises like the pandemic, brought out in general and, specifically, in the ability of specialists to achieve in months what would normally have taken years. They didn’t talk much about government but instead about the inspirational impact people could have who had the will and capability to change things.

The heroes of the pandemic were  Kate Bingham who drove the vaccination programme and the team at Oxford who got so much of the Astra Zeneca programme to happen so quickly.

One of these clever young people I met said, crisis, more often than not, accelerated creative solutions and that, in general left to their own devices to work things out, people came up with good solutions or, at the very worst, muddled their way through.

These candidates’ faith in human ingenuity, reliance and energy has been missing in the media and in many people I speak to.  A more accurate Times headline would have better described the mood if it had read “Britain slides into depression.” But these clever, single golf handicap, accomplished musicians, county standard chess playing, A* gathering, 1st class degree (of course) young people were clear-sightedly confident “it” – this crisis- could be fixed. And fixed quickly.

Their refreshing view of life and their own obvious ability to juggle as well as excel cheered me and made me want to make sure we keep them rather than lose them in the brain drains that happened in previous economic difficulties.

Later that day walking along Brighton Seafront I saw what just 20 years ago had been scruffy, grotty quality stalls and caffs but was now transformed to a smart – could have been the South of France – resort of the middle class. This uplifted me further. So again:

Crisis? What crisis?

ABOUT STICKABILITY

There’s general agreement amongst the great and the good that the most important element in a successful life is resilience. JK Rowling spun this idea neatly by saying her success was built on a solid foundation of being at rock bottom. Nelson Mandela put it like this:-
“Do not judge me by my success, judge me by how many times I fell down and got back up again.”

This attitude helps shape my scepticism about public schools and efforts to give children a ‘great start’ in life. Let the little ones struggle a bit to discover their own inner-strength. I was talking recently to a mother who was lamenting the problems of her six year old son’s keeping focus in exams. At six I was reading Enid Blyton, drawing things (rather badly) and going on nature walks. Now, to misquote AA Milne, it’s like this:
“But now I am six,
I'm as clever as clever”…
And he’ll  be doing exams forever and ever

For real resilience we need to look at Venice.

As many of you know I am besotted with the place by its looking (mostly) today as it did over 500 years ago. The alleys through which Tintoretto scurried are the same through which I now stroll. Until Vasco Da Gama discovered the sea route to India in the late 16th century Venice held the keys to European trade to and from the East. Thereafter the hangover from a lost monopoly rankled and the resilience and historically austere control of the common purse loosened. The rest is history and the encounter with Napoleon.

Today Venice is once more under the threat of disaster.

The floods of the last weeks resemble those of 1966 reaching tidal-highs 184 cm above an average high tide for November (the “acqua alta”.) Venice, however, has always been resilient. Restaurants remain open, waiters wear wellington boots, service is full of smiles and shrugged shoulders. At times like this Venice reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail who having had both his arms cut off in combat says “it’s just a flesh wound”.

As well as being indefatigable Venice has always been skilled at marketing itself . ‘Venice in Peril’ launched in 1966 has raised billions. Today money is flooding in as rapidly as the water did. Because like the recently restored-to-glory José Mourinho (now Manager of Tottenham Hotspur FC @ £13 million a year) Venice is unique. Venice indeed is the special one.

Finally politics, American politics.

 I’ve always loved its eloquence and power to change the world.  America brought us “West Wing” the most influential TV series of the last century. Netflix gives you “the Crown” hugely entertaining but more upmarket Downton Abbey than really consequential.  I love this from PJ O’Rourke.

“The Democrats are operating on the premise that nobody can lose to Donald Trump. 
And by God are they going to find that nobody”.

That’s resilient, funny and self-deprecating. I salute you America.