COMMON SENSE, REASON AND FAITH

A friend said recently “I wonder how history will judge 2019”. The answer, of course, is in much the same way history judged 1919, 1819 or 1719. A year in which reason was cast aside and – as usual - folly prevailed. A hundred years ago there was a devastating flu pandemic, a disastrous Paris Peace Conference, and spontaneous outbreaks of violence in the Midlands and elsewhere. In 1819 there was the Peterloo Massacre (so you think Brexit is divisive?) whilst in 1719 France invaded Spain and Russia devastated the Swedish coast.

Human beings are, and always were, aggressive and irrational. As Teresa May once said “nothing has changed, nothing has changed”.  Perhaps it’s because of disruption that we  often hear a cry of despair that there’s so little common sense around nowadays. “Common sense” was most famously used by Thomas Paine in the 18th century when arguing for the Independence of America meaning that it was “self-evident” that this should happen.

Before that “common sense” described the 6th sense unifying the five other human senses. So its origins define it as a really big deal. Nowadays its use seems to mean what is obvious to anyone of average intelligence and as such, in a democracy, is irrefutable. This would mean Brexit is common sense. But this surely won’t do, will it?

Similarly that most dangerous remark “it stands to reason” is usually made when reason and facts have been discarded. When opinion has taken over from analysis and thought. It’s a phrase like “let’s be fair” which is most commonly used meaning just the opposite.

I spent much of my life in advertising and obviously appreciate and applaud the power of slogans. Thus “Happiness is a cigar called Hamlet” ; “Persil washes whiter”; “British Airways. The World’s Favourite Airline”.  But maybe the most potent in my life has been “Take back control” because it changed the political and cultural landscape for good (or, as many think, for bad).

In America Donald Trump and in the UK Dominic Cummings  have proved the rousing slogan works. ”Make America Great Again” and “Take Back Control” are both action-focused unlike more passive slogans like “Labour isn’t Working”. They assume we’ve had something taken away we owned and must restore.

In the midst of this people have been losing their faith in all the institutions, Police, Judiciary, Doctors, Schools and Clergy. Yet whilst Sunday attendance in churches has declined by 15% since 2007,  attendance in Cathedrals has grown by nearly 20%. So it’s odd Rochester and Norwich  Cathedrals have put  in their aisles, respectively,  a crazy golf course  and a helter-skelter.

As tribalism grows so too does faith. Rationality has taken a kicking but faith in areas from sport to fitness gurus to community groups has grown. Maybe the church should tap into that rather than indulge in low grade gimmickry.

People need to believe in something – in the midst of the current confusion something solid, reliable and unchanging.

NOT SUCH SWINGING TIMES?

From intellectual swinger to Uber partner

I was watching Steve Hilton one of the radical political swingers of the ‘90s on Question Time. He used to be David Cameron’s strategy guru before decamping to Silicon Valley where he’s married to Rachel Whetstone Senior VP of Communications at Uber.  Steve invented the “Big Society” and is clever, articulate and ever so slightly barmy in a new world, give-the-people-their-voice way (well it takes one to know one.)

So to learn that he’s a Brexit fan is surprising apart from that Uber thing - do Uber hate the EU? They surely do.

Swinging against the Silicon Invasion

The more I see of this debate and those “aren’t-we-the-greatest?” squabbles the more I like Europe, its civilised manners, style and attitudes to bullies like the big US heavies, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and of course Uber. Nowhere else in the world does anyone want to or can anyone else stand up to the Techno Thugs like the EU does, the biggest economy in the world.

The golf swing slows down

But however you vote not many executives spend hours relaxing on a golf course any longer. Golf participation in the UK is in very steep decline. Golf clubs are closing and being turned over to property development projects. Let’s face it, who’s got the time to spend hours on golf in our busy, busy world?

Recycling not swinging

We are a busy and we’re a sated race. However good the series the sequel has to be extraordinary to survive, yet success drive its producers on to the umpteenth Master Chef, Strictly Come Dancing, Bake Off or whatever.  With no golf to play, son of X Factor to watch, wearisome debates to turn off and a massive assault from American marauding techno hordes trying to own us and all our data - no wonder that we all feel rather tired.

(Source: Mumbrella)

Bad news swinging into adland

The big new, news, as Roger Alexander  the retired legal giant from the advertising world remarked, is the ANA (Association of National Advertisers) forthcoming report on media fraud. Business Insider journalist Lara O’Reilly said this:

An explosive report on kickbacks in the ad industry is coming out next month and some say it could lead to 'jail time'

Jon Mandel ex-CEO of WPP’s Media agency Media Com kicked this elephant in the advertising room into the spotlight last year. So the next sector to face the inquisition is advertising to whom “transparency of billing” has been an oxymoron since the money men took over.

So is anything swinging? Try looking at the Portsmouth fashion scene….
My wife and I went to a graduate fashion show at Portsmouth University and were blown away by the quality, and quantity of sheer creativity shown by these young people. They were so full of hope.

https://www.facebook.com/universityofportsmouthcci/posts/1230960626915621

Cheering after listening to Boris and the rest of those dreary men to hear and see the real future swinging into view.

WHY I LOVE EUROPE

The remarkable thing about the Ryder Cup at Gleneagles was the teamwork Europe showed in this most ‘teamly’ of golf formats, the foursomes, which we won 7-1. I shall no doubt reflect more and deeper on how it is four Englishmen and representatives from eight other European countries came together as one cohesive synchronised unit. How it was that even suspiciously UKIP looking spectators were howling “Europe! EEUURRope!!!” How for one glorious weekend we all felt as one.

And yet we are increasingly Eurosceptic with 51% saying they’d vote to exit and only 40% voting to stay in in a recent MORI poll.

I suppose if we exit we’ll no longer be part of the Ryder Cup which will be very good news for the USA. Just as it was for us when an always-beaten Britain in golf joined forces with Europe and the miracle started because of that alliance. Do we detect a possible lesson here?

But that would be less sad than the loss of what feels like an increasingly natural link. I actually feel more European than at any time in my life. Do I hate Brussels bureaucracy? Of course. Do I admire the Euro economy? Not particularly, no. But do I think we have a huge and necessary leadership role in the Europe of the future - of course I do. Without the UK I really do suspect Europe may not make it.

And I’m influenced by UK business leaders - a hard headed bunch - 80%+ of whom say we should stay with Europe. The CBI spell out the numbers saying that at around £70 billion a year EU membership is worth nearly 5% of Britain’s GDP.

The desire to leave is less well founded by far than the Scottish “yes” votes’ argument was.
Back to golf and that astonishing cultural harmony we saw. It was more than golf. The US team were statistically on average slightly stronger but the star spangled banner didn’t have the clout or the passion of that star-circled device for the EU.

I felt as though I was watching the possibility of “Europeness” as German embraced Spaniard and Dane embraced Scot. Unlike the World Cup or the European Song Contest Britain seemed happy to be in close company with its neighbours.

The mood in Britain is pretty well anti-everything at present. We have become a nation of “Doom Dabblers”. Given this I am not hopeful of a referendum on Europe.

I am (I recognise this) irrepressibly and even irritatingly optimistic.
But there are two guiding principles here though not just a bucket of warm Bonheur.

The world needs more collaboration. Being small may be beautiful but things are too complex to do them solo.

Learning to be in and loving being in a team needs strength of will and empathy. Opting out is always the easier choice.

Little Britain could be great in a united Europe which it helped lead. Or we could be proud, independent, little and ignored.

Our choice.

THE GRASS IS GREENER

The grass may be greener but it’s likely to be a lot more dangerous.

A recent 20 year study in the USA by consultants AT Kearney and the Kelley School of business at Indiana University shows that Chief Executives promoted from within an organisation generally outperform those recruited from outside. They conclude external recruitment is “more risky, costly and disruptive.”

How much more costly? 65%.

How much more disruptive? 40% of outsiders last 2 years or less.

So it’s game, set and match for talent development and succession management.

Which is no surprise to anyone I speak to in most large or smaller corporations. Because whilst non executives and consultants are all going to be proponents for change and disciples of pundits like Lester Thurow of MIT who said:- “A competitive world offers two possibilities: you can lose or, if you want to win, you can change”, few of them are bent on annihilating the organisation they are trying to improve.

Change does not mean big, random, “asserting my will” changes an incoming CEO often from a different culture, a different country and, like as not, a different market, might want to make. Change, as in changing course, seldom means doing brutal hand-break turns or going from 30,000 feet to 10,000 feet to shake up a few people. Change can mean skilful pruning and working with the best one’s got. Usually an incumbent executive will be better at that than a stranger who’s got a huge package with vast incentives, a mandate for carnage and is unencumbered by knowledge.

UK companies who tend to promote from within include Tesco, Shell, Next, HSBC, Glaxo SmithKline and GKN. And in the USA General Electric, Intel, Nike and a host of others are succession management junkies. And when Apple went outside look what happened to them.

This puts a big premium on Talent Management and Leadership Coaches. Yet this is where the most important investment any business can make resides. Their task is not to clone conservative CEOs who don’t rock any boats but to grow and develop free thinkers who understand what RA Butler, the 1950s brilliant politician, called “the art of the possible.”

There’s a great book on golf by Robert Rotella called “Golf is not a Game of Perfect”. Neither is running a company or finding a new leader.

In fact that greener looking grass might be more toxic than it looks or it might be concealing some very venomous snakes.