Monday, 21 April 2014


As you know I’m writing a book. This makes me question everything I read and get very tetchy (ask my wife.) In my research I’ve just come across Georg Vielmetter who runs the European leadership and talent practice at Hay consulting. He’s spearheaded their study Leadership 2030 which is the result of a foresight research and analysis program conducted by Hay Group

and Z_Punkt. The research (it says) “pinpointed six megatrends that will create the greatest shifts in the business environment.”

Georg (that’s right, no “e”) and Z_Punkt together raise all the instincts of a Private Eye investigator. (Who’s pulling whose I wonder?) Well  Z_Punkt are based in Cologne and seem quite a weighty bunch whose role in life is  - hold on while I sit down - to “futurise” business.
We all know that “futurising” is best left to J.K. Rowling. Because no one in business or government ever gets it right. Futurising is work for fiction writers. That’s why people who write fiction love the idea of an uncertain future.

So what do Z_Punkt make of it?  (By the way Z_Punkt’s the sound an elastic band makes when pulled back then released snapping painfully across your fingers. So I’ll call them Z_Punkt_ugh! In future)

These are “Megatrends 2030” courtesy of Z_Punkt_ugh! and Hay.

1. Globalization: Asia dominates the global economy, and a new middle class emerges.
2. Environmental crisis: Sustainability moves from CSR initiative to business-critical imperative.
3. Individualism and value pluralism: Freedom of choice erodes loyalty and overhauls employee motivation.
4. Digitization: Work goes mobile, and the boundaries blur between private and professional life.
5. Demographic change: Aging populations intensify the talent war.
6. Technological convergence: Powerful new technologies combine to transform many aspects of everyday life.

I feel like bursting into that song from Annie, the musical:
“The sun'll come out tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow
there'll be sun
Just thinkin' about tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow till' there's none
When I'm stuck in the day that's grey and lonely
I just stick up my chin and grin and say ohh…”                                                                               repeat …

Because I think I knew all that megatrend stuff, I think the Asia thing, the ageing thing, the green thing, the mobile thing, well I think I knew all that - didn’t you? I don’t think that’s “futurising” anything I think it’s “sun’ll come out tomorrow” stuff.

But it gets worse.

The leader of the future will be “Altrocentric”. No that’s not “Al” is in “Allan” it means focusing on others. The leader of the future will be sweet and kind, give people presents and sing them to sleep. The leader of the future will be useless. Just as the footballer of the future unlike that nasty Suarez with his beastly nippy teeth, will be sportsmanlike, never tackle and will applaud his opponents’ goals.

Me? I’m back to writing and my own brands of centricity: prandiocentricity, risocentricity, bibente-centricity.

That’s lunch, laughter and booze.
Z_Punkt_ugh! to you all.

Monday, 14 April 2014


I was asked to talk to a group of small businesses in Lewes. If you haven’t been to Lewes go there. It’s perched on a hill which runs down to the River Ouse, the fragrant scent  of Harvey’s the Brewery suffuses the place with its antique shops and organic cafes. Once upon a time Oxford was like this, reflective and inward looking. At night Lewes quietens as its inhabitants go indoors to pubs and dining rooms and talk, drink and think. The architecture is Elizabethan in part, unlike its rowdy brother Brighton with its Regency look-at-me white stucco. Lewes is alive with a sense of rebellion, independence and talent. Home to Glyndebourne, musicians and craftsmen it’s one of those places that remind one why Britain is so extraordinarily rich and stable a country.

So there I was in the genial Con Club, sun shafting through the windows. As I started, my key theme being you should tell people about how good you are and be assertive - because you are your own salesforce, I reflected on the irony.  There I was an ex-Ad Man who’d worked on big budget commercials, talking about why marketing on a shoestring was so wonderful, a bit like a chef talking to hungry people about dieting.  Yet I learned so much from them and about their businesses and felt humbled as, following my advice they expressed themselves vividly, confidently and with passion about their products and services.

A carpenter who talked of his love of wood and his passion for working it, another saying he loved what he did, really understood it and had an absolute certainty of success, another who talked of the joy of transforming people they taught, another of the sheer pleasure of giving pleasure in her B&B (I want to stay there) and another who talked about photography with an appetite that’s rare and an ability to project magic - “at my best I do photographs that knock people’s socks  off.”  It was a morning of passion, insight, self-belief and colour. They all, when it was drawn from them loved what they did. Life was a formula balancing passion and pragmatism; a compromise between art, joy, a story to tell and paying the bills.
I learned  small is really beautiful. These were people who lived, breathed and spun threads of love around what they did. They used all their senses not just their left brain. From Pilates to theatre to arts to caring I heard great stories, people describing change as though it was fun and normal.

Respite from writing my book? Yes but also an education in the terror and the ecstasy of being your own person not an employee. I hope I boosted their sense of being special and helped them become a bit more marketing assertive. These were great storytellers when unleashed. And that‘s the best marketing tool of all.

Some of the slides from my presentation are included

Monday, 7 April 2014


We can all make the mistake of getting stuck in the same old groove. But business can’t be treated like Su Doku, a game with straightforward rules.  Yet words best designed to make anyone scream like corporate template and company strategy (usually because there isn’t one) are same old groove words for most people.

If we are going to make well informed, even inspired decisions we have to get outside the groove and consider our situation from a different perspective - what Professor John Kay of the LSE calls “obliquity”. He says obliquity (pursuing our goals indirectly) is necessary because living in a world of uncertainty means the problems we encounter aren’t always clear and we often can’t pinpoint what our real goals are. Things change and people (the behaviour of whom is often hard to predict) change too. Direct approaches are often unimaginative whilst ‘muddling through’ for a bit can sometimes be a much more productive answer.

Stories of improvisation beating the corporate plan abound but I enjoy one Malcolm Gladwell tells. Big corporate Goliath being outwitted and outgunned by the guerrilla tactics of David armed with the 1000BC equivalent of Remington XP-100 (rated the most accurate hand gun in the world). David knew he’d win so long as he improvised out of the reach of lumbering Goliath’s but what’s baffling is that Saul and the other spectators  only foresaw this as a toe to toe duel because that’s how you did things in those days in Israel. They were thinking in “like-we’ve-always-done-it” terms rather than let’s improvise and win terms.

In business, stories of small, loose thinking winners include Nike winning as a Vietcong style upstart founded in 1964 against Adidas founded 1948 – Nike is now twice the size of Adidas, Facebook against My Space (in June 2006 My Space captured 80% of social networking traffic (up from 76% in April). Facebook was second with 7.6%. The ball has been dropped in most markets we are looking at and no one really knows where it is. Better to improvise rather than pretend the ball’s still in sight.

We all tend to overestimate power whether it’s physical like Goliath’s or exploited by people who feel they’re expected to flaunt it. That’s a high risk strategy on their part but some seem to think it worth taking. Chuck Prince ex CEO and Chairman of Citigroup certainly seemed to think so as he made the defining quote of the 2008 crash on the very eve of the credit crunch:-

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”

 You make decisions that solve problems by taking each on its merits and not being hamstrung by a rigid plan. Strategic plans can make one option blind. Remember Mike Tyson:

“Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth”

Monday, 31 March 2014


Joshua Foer is a journalist and writer (“Moonwalking with Einstein”). He became interested in memory and especially the extraordinary feats of memory some achieve some remembering hundreds of numbers in sequence or the cards in several packs of cards. He was intrigued that the seemingly impossible could be memorised. He wanted to know more so he visited the USA Memory Championship. There’ve been sixteen such championships in New York City. His interest deepened. So much so that in 2006, just out of interest he trained for and entered the championship.

There he discovered people specialists in things like remembering as many decks of playing cards as possible, 5min Historic Dates (fictional events and historic years) and memorizing the order of one shuffled deck of 52 playing cards as fast as possible. World record: 21.90 seconds. There are ten exercises in all.
Jonathan was blown away. He realised he was in the presence of mental gymnasts of an extraordinary order. Yet in 2006 he entered just for interest and…and he won it. Jonathan Foer became US Memory Champion almost by chance. How? Well he explains on TED how you have to make things you want to remember meaningful and tangible. He explains how techniques invented 2,500 years ago still work.

The lyric poet Simonides had a wonderful memory.  During the excavation of the rubble of one Scopas' dining hall that had collapsed in an earthquake, Simonides (who’d luckily left before the disaster) was asked to identify each guest killed. Although their bodies had been crushed beyond recognition he successfully finished the task by remembering who was who from their positions at the table before his departure. He later developed what became known as  the 'memory palace', a system for mnemonics widely used until the Renaissance …when things we needed to remember  were printed so are memories weren’t called on with quite the previous urgency.

Today of course our memory is on our iPad or smartphone. Today children at school are not taught to memorise. Today we’ve forgotten about memory. Yet memory today is still a vital thinking tool.
I’d go further. It’s virtually impossible to be a great success without a reasonable memory. Imagine a lawyer who can’t cross reference relevant cases. Imagine a toymaker who can’t recall similar toys to his latest idea. Imagine a writer who couldn’t remember the references that enrich his assertions.

You cannot busk when you have poor memory.

One of our biggest problems is our mind attic is stacked full of rubbish we don’t need. So, in specific areas we really want to focus on, we need to do a “Spring Clean”. Learn some stuff by heart, put some structure around a subject in which you have a keen interest and see
what happens. Look after one of your precious assets.

(By the way the 17th USA Memory Championship was on March 29, 2014 at Con Edison headquarters, 4 Irving Place, New York City.)

Monday, 24 March 2014


Independence is in the air, you can smell the whiff of recession and of rebirth from Padua to Perth. There’s a restless mood of change. Crimea which represents just 5% of the Ukraine has gone home to mother Russia. Scotland is putting its gouty toe into the water of independence and dreaming of “Braveheart” and of Mel Gibson roaring “freedom”.

Just recently I’ve started taking the SNP quite seriously. This is partly because of the lacklustre campaign by the “No” team.  Although to be fair they do have a problem or two. The Tories amongst them know that independence for Scotland means virtually the end of the Socialist party so a large part of their minds would love it to happen. And a whole bunch of ‘schadenfreuders’ in England have a playground attitude of “let them go and see what happens…they’ll be sorry.”
It gets worse…the head of the Chamber of Commerce in Newcastle said compellingly this week that a “yes” vote would be fantastic for them with a migration of business from Scotland south.

But it isn’t any of that that interests me so much as a sense of curiosity as to whether the Scots as a whole, regardless of economic issues, would actually be happier being independent. Too small to survive I hear. Hmm. They’d be bigger than Norway, Finland, New Zealand and Luxembourg who are respectively number 1, 8, 5 and 10 in the “Happiest Nation Index” (the UK, by the way, is 16th).

And who ambitious wants either the been-there-seen-that status quo or the sense of being a small fish in a rather large and unfriendly pond?

Wouldn’t Wales and  Cornwall prefer to be independent – actually come to that wouldn’t London prefer it too – an independent London would be like Singapore only much, much more powerful? The biggest, richest glittery city in the world.

And I see now that Venice is at it, running a poll of ½ million people in the Veneto region of Italy,  voting to secede from the corruption of Rome and the hopeless poverty of the south of the country.

Then there’s Catalonia, Brittany and so it goes on. So it’s better to be independent and it’s better to be small is it? This seems to be the mood. Small is beautiful. Welcome back the apostle of the doctrine…

And that’s why there were 300,000 start-ups in the UK last year and already this year a further 120,000.

As regards size, business units of around 150 seem to be the perfect size. A size where there’s spirit, obsession and energy. This is where creativity seems to peak. Forget about scaling a business; a lot of business thinkers are beginning to wonder if big and bureaucratic isn’t just beastly and unwieldy.

Imagine countries with a population of 5m. and businesses of 150 employees? Maybe this really is the future rather than corporations of thousands or Shanghai’s of 20 million.

This …. and, of course, that bit of freedom.

Monday, 17 March 2014


I heard a story recently about some people eating in a restaurant in Helsinki. The food when it arrived was not what they’d ordered. They pointed this out to the waitress who said :-  “I know”. Thinking perhaps that she hadn’t understood them they said again :- “this…is…not…what…we…ordered”. “I know” she said “I made a mistake. Eat it please”.

It sounds like Saga in the Bridge. An unforgettable putting-you-in-your-place tactic.

Last Sunday we had our own “I’m so cross I couldn’t eat it now if it was free and served by BeyoncĂ©” experience. We went to this idyllic country gastropub for lunch. The sun had brought out unusual crowds but there was no reason to believe they couldn’t cope (oh yes there was – the addition of the six letters GASTRO doesn’t change the fact it’s a traditional British Pub…old Britain…they don’t do service). Anyway (what do mean anyway…you didn’t stay did you?) – yes – well anyway we’d booked for 2.30 and we ordered and actually I ordered smoked salmon and they did say it might take up to 40 minutes which seemed a bit long (they were lying weren’t they?) Yes. We were still waiting after 1 ½ hours. And we walked out with them begging us to stay as we were next. (So you won’t be going back will you?)  No we won’t.

Spot what’s missing here

Customer service is always top of my list.

In London, in particular, standards have improved dramatically. Today we expect smiling, attentive, the customer-is-our-first-concern-and they -are-always-right attitude. We do not want or expect fawning servility. We want New Britain. The Ivy not the CafĂ© Royal. BAA not British Rail. New not old. And if you love your customers, really love them, it’s not that hard.

It was what I most enjoyed about advertising – cooking up great creative work – serving it to needy clients and watching it do their business good. They even paid us for having this much fun.

Which brings me to two RIPs for old Britain.

To the always infuriating and yet curiously entertaining Bob Crow. Like an old Music Hall comedian he strutted the ticket halls of London Underground defending the indefensible.

And to the Co-op. I love my local Co-op. Great staff. Good product but underlying it all a perverse Royal Mail-ness. Horror after horror has unfolded as it’s become clear the organisational terrorists within who leak and brief against management – Al and Frieda rather than Al-Quaeda – want to revert to the old Co-op.

Sadly I fear this is a vote for suicide. Whilst Mr Sutherland was well paid for sure (too well? – well, there’s an important cultural debate here) no one would dispute he’s been trying to pull off a massive rescue and turnaround, probably in so doing shortening his own life. In effectively ousting him his uncooperative colleagues will, as I said at the outset, sadly be served right.

New Co-op HQ – old Co-op attitudes

Monday, 10 March 2014



The poem by 17th century poet Andrew Marvell starts
“Had we but world enough and time
this coyness, lady, were no crime”

It’s a blatant try-on, though as knicker-dropping appeals go it’s pretty compelling. But since we now live in a global environment we have plenty of “world”, few of us are coy (indeed if you read the Times this week you’ll have seen one night stands are all the thing at the University of Oxford – they call it recreational, consensual sex – with Exeter College as the naughtiest and least coy place of all….check it out.

And the tone of the poem would have meant young Mr Marvell having his ruff fingered by officers from Operation Yew Tree if he tried this ploy on today.
As for time we live in a do-it-now, hurry-hurry, get-‘em-off world where the default speed is warp drive.
That’s the world of now, the much vaunted “mindfulness” arena in which we are performing and making our decisions. The trouble is human beings are hopeless at predicting the future and are congenitally over-optimistic. This leads to over runs, missed deadlines, embarrassing statements in parliament and overall disappointment.
The consequences of what we do now (the mindful place) in this hurry-hurry world also has a nasty habit of coming back to sting us. Hence the headline from hell for the Met in Friday’s Times:
“You can’t trust Police”

Twenty years ago some decisions and catastrophic judgements were being made in the Lawrence enquiry that will continue to stain reputations for years to come. It’s beyond quick fixing.
Operation Yew Tree again. Foraging into the mental dustbins of the Andrew Marvell’s of the 1970s is leading to some unsavoury stuff and some weird court cases.  What probably started as a series of fumbles has resulted in a long drawn out set of nasty consequences.

And here’s my big problem with mindfulness. Whilst carpe diem is quite the zeitgeist thing, it’s also very dangerous. Being body conscious and in the present was just what Andrew Marvell was getting at in the 1650’s.
But what we should be learning is the need for “thoughtfulness” not mindfulness; the need for understanding the learnings from history and the potential impact in the future of the actions and decisions we make now. The Richard Branson philosophy of “screw it let’s do it”, which sounds like the anthem of the grubby recent past, won’t do at all.
We live in complex times and the unravelling of the reputations of all our institutions – parliament, police, church, media, banks and big business have been induced by a “screw let’s do it” attitude.
Unless we start to think a bit harder and guard against being randomly impulsive we’ll have to sweep up a lot more reputational debris as we rebuild trust.

And that rebuilding of trust and reputation will take time – a very long time.