TO HELL IN A HANDCART?

Is that where Britain’s going? You’d  think so based on schadenfreude articles in Germany on our “post-Brexit-plight” to e-mails from friends in France entitled “Doom and Gloom” to articles in our own press about the collapse of the economy.

There are issues, to be sure, but to predict as the Times did  that “This could ruin Christmas”  is foolish. Taking a calmer view we can understand why these local difficulties have happened and how we can cope with them.

The shortage of HGV drivers. Better pay and conditions will solve this.

Blame Eddie Stobart. Rescued from collapse by private equity in 2014 the name that once dominated our motorways is seldom seen now. Instead we see the word “logistics” meaning “the organization and implementation of a complex operation.” When Eddie was king of the road life just seemed more straightforward than that.

Being a lorry diver used to be tough - long hours and poor pay. Now there are allegedly salaries of over £50,000 a year being offered plus a signing-on bonus of thousands more. But if you want a cushier life operating nearer to home Amazon are offering van drivers up to £17 an hour (that’s around £40k a year.) The good news is some school leavers are seriously considering training to become HGV drivers.

The fuel shortage will be a blip - such things always are. In 2000 we had a fuel crisis. At the time Archie Norman was Shadow Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions. I met him at a cocktail party – those were the days – and was surprised to hear him saying “I fear this country may be becoming ungovernable”. When I suggested this was nonsense he stormed off. But then as in 2005 and 2007 a fuel crisis is an easy thing to start. Just hint a shortage of something important to people and expect a surge in demand.

Lavatory paper, gin, fuel, eggs, bread, chocolate. Those’ll do for starters.

The gas price boom. The large number of virtual gas suppliers selling on price was always going to be unsustainable as Russian and Norwegian supplies eased. Any market where price becomes the primary driver is a minefield for small, inexperienced players. Again a blip that will stabilise.

Food shortages. Some of this is to do with a poor summer in the UK leading to poor harvests but not just in the UK. The durum wheat harvest in Italy was a bad one too. But the shelves remain quite full, just a few gaps, not empty.

There are other disturbing  issues like the virtual nationalisation of a major section of the rail network, massive “logistical” fissures appearing in the NHS and the very culture of the Police Force being under scrutiny following the ghastly murder of Sarah Everard by a policeman. We always focus on hellish thoughts when that’s what the media tells us.

Let me lift your spirits a little.

Less driving will do us no harm.

The low-wage culture is rightly changing; maybe the minimum wage should be £15 an hour rather than £10.

After nearly two years of Covid, depression is understandable. Amazingly most of us are OK and beginning to be sociable again. 

Low price, low margin, low quality are on their way out. 

As a high wage, high quality, highly skilled economy we’ll be happier.

It’s always been easy to grumble. Our society will be fine. How fine is up to us.

To hell in a handcart? Nonsense. Just relax.

And Christmas won’t be ruined without pigs in blankets. Ho! Ho!  Ho!

  

DISTRESSED, STRESSED OUT AND MESSED UP?

My own cheerful optimism is unchanged but I’ve encountered a lot a gloom recently. “The dark side is descending on us” I was told by a ‘scholar of doom’, “you can feel disintegration in the air.” Hmm.

Talking about the Utopia of our current world (only relative to the brutish past) cuts no mustard with such people. Take knife crime and the “epidemic” -  about 40 deaths in London so far this year which is awful but – bloody, great, enormous BUT – in 2002 there were over 1000 murders in the UK and recently it had dropped to just over 550. The London victims are of gangland killings not of a homicidal pandemic.

The NHS “horrors” are largely overstated and dramatized for political purposes. My own recent experience with a close-to-dying close relative were of impressively on-the-ball, confident and charming professionalism. That’s at the Royal Sussex in Brighton which is in special measures with wretched inspectors crawling all over them.

The stress of living in 2018 is created by something a lot closer to home than dark forces or catastrophic institutional incompetence. Because in general we are surrounded by great competence and skill.

But we are also surrounded by breathless fear and unreasonable expectations. We all seem on our bad days to be chasing our tails, trying to keep up, rushing around with a glint of terrified-purpose in our eyes. Many of us are driving cars today which would have served as tanks a century ago. We are surrounded by astounding levels of household debt - £1,630 billion with student loans doubled, credit card debt up 23% since 2012. Put in perspective the average household debt level is around 2.5 times the average annual household income. So I guess a little fear isn’t wholly misplaced.

People sleep badly. I keep hearing this. People are having bad dreams. Why? We live in a civilised world populated by nice people trying to do their best. Maybe we’re just trying too hard. Too hard to keep up. Too hard to be judged as successful. As the rumble of Brexit rolls on I suspect it’s like the Russian Novichok nerve agent the horrors of which whilst real seem not yet, at any rate, mortal.

If as pundits suspect we end up slightly poorer and less important in world terms because of Brexit –Britain rather than Great Britain - maybe that’s going to be OK. Less stress, less mess and a happier bunch of people. Trying to exceed our talents and resources is seldom a great idea.

I found this quote from Jack Nicklaus, the legendary, champion golfer and good guy particularly helpful. I hope you do too:

“Every player must find the balance between ambition and insanity. Were major championships my focus? Yes they were. Were they my only focus in life? No. My family always came before that. Could I have worked harder and won more majors.? Probably. Could I have driven myself crazy doing it? Certainly.”

 Thanks Jack.

SO HOW DO WE DIG OURSELVES OUT OF THIS?

The gloom deepens and we risk all become just unquestioning spectators.

Good: Diamond Jubilee, Euro 2012 (mostly). 

Ashby de la Zouch celebrates

Bonfires start at the bottom. This was a big national bonfire. Learn from the power of locals to ignite campaigns – cheaply, fast and well branded.

Bad: Syria, Greece, Spain…deeper and down (but I love the fact the dispossessed from the homes are repossessing empty power blocks owned by discredited banks.)

Prospects: dire for us and for England in Euro 2012… I have a funny feeling we may surprise….just wish we weren’t playing in so inimical a series of places.

“Sometimes I feel so depressed I decide to stay in bed. Then I worry that I might fall out and hurt myself.” Robert Benchley

So what in practical terms can we do about all this? Here are seven thoughts.

1. Challenge everything

A young relation is trying to get into Oxford – I began to put her through the sort of inquisition she might encounter. “What’s your best dream?” I asked “Clean water for the world.” She sparkled. “Yet when our water in Britain was at its dirtiest we ruled supreme. Explain.”

Balliol College Oxford where the questions never stop and where that green space keeps thinking (hopefully) fresh.

2. Become an obsessive planner

Sit and think and plan. Speculate how various changing external factors could alter what you try to do. How nimble can you be? How fixed are your costs? How stubborn are your preconceptions. Tear up the old business models.

A tsunami wave. Poignantly symbolic of the forces and surprises we will face. Nothing is impossible. Plan for that.

3. Simplify everything you do

The “Apple-trick”– fewer, better features. More focus. Get more force in the water from that hosepipe. We live in a crowded, noisy world. Beware becoming a Facebook slave or a Twitter addict. Do less, do better. Stop chatting. Start planning.

Apple have been the brilliant simplifiers. Less is more. Declutter. Aim to do three things briiliantly.

4. If you aren’t getting better you’ve got a problem

James Cracknell – rowing gold medallist said “our worst had to be better than our competitor’s best”. How good are you at what you do? Really? Tell the truth. And if you don’t know everything you do is guessing.

Crazy guys with huge stamina. But they knew how to win. Tell the truth. Train harder. Be better. Attack. Focus on winning.

5. It’s what your customers think that matters

Tell that to the bullies at Visa who through their sponsorship of the Olympics have had other ATM machines disabled. In fact if you don’t have a Visa card you can’t go the Olympics. You are in effect bankrupt. The PR from this is needlessly damaging. Visa’s an acronym for “very insulting stupid…” can’t think of a word for “a” … They’ll listen to their customers but too late.

Shame on you bully. You’re a great brand that’s stopped listening to people.

6. Do some stuff

“We do strategy here – we call it doing things” That was Sam Kelleher legendary boss of South West Airlines. Action; speed; innovation;change. If you aren’t trying and rejecting and doing stuff you’re in trouble.

South West Airlines internal poster – nice – one on the world’s success stories – active, interactive, fun; shows it can be done.

7. Get help to pull all this together

This is a cross between self-help, major surgery, a severe work-out programme, a re-launch, botox and good resolutions. Welcome to 2012. Don’t try this at home alone. Surround yourself with a few friends, gurus and inspirers just like the Olympic stars do or smart people trying to climb mountains.

The Sherpa on the left is anonymous but this wouldn’t be easy without him. Get a Sherpa.