THE SECRETS TO SUCCESS

 Well, I guessed that might capture your attention. The trouble is success is relative. Would you rather be Jacob Rees-Mogg – rich, with a beautiful house and Rolls Royce or a League Two footballer for Exeter City (9th in the table) and dreaming of promotion. I know which I’d prefer.

But success can’t have ever come in such abundance as it has for Richard Osman the gameshow host, TV producer and writer.

As a writer he’s breaking all publishing records. So far “The Thursday Murder Club” is only the 2nd work of fiction this century to sell over a million copies. His second book “The Man who Died Twice” sold 114,202 in the first week, one of the fastest opening-week sales of a book ever. The film rights for the first book have been secured by Stephen Spielberg. Richard is the Lionel Messi, or the Beatles, of fiction. If he wrote a book called “The Ditchling Sieved Lettuce Incident” it would sell another million.

Why? 

That’s the question the late Richard Rowe who was Head of A&R (Singles) at Decca Records from the 1950s to the 1970s and who rejected the Beatles would be still asking if he were still alive. 

Because the point is this - as Ann Treneman witheringly wrote in the Times last week -  “The Thursday Murder Club” is not a very easy or rewarding read. Not so says great novelist Ian Rankin it’s 'so smart and funny. Deplorably good’. Kate Atkinson is equally vociferous in her praise. But the point is I agree with Ann Treneman. I’ve read the book and found it rather weak and lacking in focus, and characterisation. My 98-year-old mother-in-law, still a keen reader of writers like Sarah Dunant, was more damning – “disappointing” she sniffed.

So why?

Three things:

1. Brilliant marketing

2. Richard is a carefully created modest and clever TV star we all know and love. He’s a good guy. An intellectual George Clooney.

3. He has settled into, and now owns a piece of unoccupied territory in literature. Old people as heroes. Forget that “love island” Sally Rooney and others compete in writing about. The 3 million over-60s are not so much an island as a continent with more millions of children, grandchildren and great grandchildren who love them. How many Grandparents will get several copies of both books this Christmas? 

So well done Richard Osman. Several million pounds richer says you are right and that I am wrong in finding your first book a bit Enid Blytonish - “The Retirement Home Of Adventure.” It hasn’t certainly been a “pointless exercise”.

But how I want to write the Texas Chainsaw Massacre version of his books with mad Sister Martha, a series of gruesome murderers, poisoned food and the uncovering of a drug smuggling operation…” that may explain the huge number of visitors in fast cars” mused Inspector Dim. “We’re dealing with Geriatric Lines – it’s worse than County Lines.” 

Richard Osman has done for the world of literature what Richard Curtis has done with Love Actually and what films like Marigold Hotel and then, Mama Mia did for extrovert audiences. I may not like Richard’s books, but I love the effect they’re having. Whatever else they are nice books which seek to spread joy (and yes Enid Blyton in her day did just that too.)

Richard has sneaked into the role of National Treasure alongside Jamie Oliver, Stephen Fry, Judie Dench, Adele and others. It was about time we had someone like him spreading good.

I’m just so sorry I didn’t enjoy that first book more. 

TERRIBLE ADVICE

Rubbish solutions are in fashion

I’m not sure why this appealed so much to me but recently I was driving through Brighton behind a van emblazoned with a sign “Brighton Rubbish Solutions” and it occurred to me this was great name for a second or even third rate marketing consultancy. Mostly I guess because most advice nowadays is so suspect. Ask any economist – or rather don’t bother. I reflected further on businesses taking bold and sometimes strange decisions.

Like Jaguar. I saw their brand new Jaguar F-Pace recently. "Gosh" I thought “smart Renault!”.  It bore no resemblance to Jaguar refinement. If it were a painting it would be called a forgery. An SUV solution but a bad one.

Or Tesco’s secret plans to launch a new retail concept to fight Aldi (the UK’s favourite supermarket say  consumers) and Lidl. The conversations in Cheshunt where the mighty Tesco is headquartered have historically revolved around the risks to the brand and of confusing consumers in introducing a really cheap Tesco as opposed to a quite cheap Tesco. Trouble is Aldi is remarkable for its quality not just its prices. In a recent survey of 10 great value/quality grocery items in the Sunday Times Aldi had two – their prosecco and their new coffee pods – and Lidl one, their aged beef. Revealingly Tesco had none.

 

If they aren’t careful Tesco will end up with a rubbish solution. As Coca Cola have done in reversing their one brand strategy and relaunching their sugar free brands in isolation.

And in the world of economics  Bitcoin is either a genius introduction to the future of money or it’s the  next South Sea Bubble. Confusingly  it could be both. Which is a rubbish situation.

In the world of politics some weird things are happening. Politicians used to yearn for “clear blue water”  separating parties. Today an ocean lies between the wrathful disciples of left-wing-Momentum and the pinstriped intolerant Tory right-wing.

Let me introduce you to Jacob Rees-Mogg. America astonished the world by electing a game-show host who’s reckless, rude and crude. In the UK the bookies have two favourites for the next Prime Minister – Jeremy Corbyn (described by an American friend as Bernie Saunders without the brains) and Jacob. Ladbrokes and Coral actually make Jacob the narrow favourite.

Who is he?  48 years old. Educated Eton and Oxford. Co-founder of a Hedge Fund. He and his wife have around £100 million allegedly. He is strongly anti-Europe and advocates abrupt and total separation from the EU. He has six children. Their names are revealing: Peter Theodore Alphege;  Mary Anne Charlotte Emma ;Thomas Wentworth Somerset Dunstan; Anselm Charles Fitzwilliam ; Alfred Wulfric Leyson Pius; Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher. The names tell a story.

He has an icy charm. He’s clever, well mannered, calm and very dangerous. But chances are – if you believe the bookmakers – he could be the next Prime Minister. Or possibly another rubbish solution.

We live in strange times.

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I am struck by how the nature of opinion forming has changed. When I was doing ‘A’ levels we were coached in the art of balanced arguments, considering the evidence pro and con to a given question and advancing a calm conclusion. It’s a skill that judges in courts of law or good consultants need to give sound judgements or advice.

The speed of our communication is partly responsible. From speed dating to speed reading or, in the case of Donald Trump, allegedly not reading at all. We are forced to think fast and decisively (for decisively read “impulsively”). And it’s beginning to catch up with us.

 

The Police and CPS have been caught out a series of times recently for being sloppy and dilatory in the handing over of crucial evidence to the defence. But on reduced budgets and manpower you try sifting through 4000 Facebook entries although they really must because it’s their job to see justice is done;  it is not their job to get a conviction. Just as in business it is our job to do our job properly not get a profit at any cost (remember the Tesco saga?)

   

Gary Kasparov on Desert Island Discs recently was an incredibly smart, considered guest who having beaten Deep Blue – the Computer that played chess – said that he knew he’d lose most times because human beings make mistakes and computers don’t. Even with all the experience he had he still made mistakes. imagine how much more prone we are when we don’t even bother to review all the information?

The fact is we live in a world of bias. Bias means being one-sided, lacking a neutral viewpoint, or not having an open mind. Watch Question Time and you see unbridled bias.

Go to a football match and see normally civilised and sensible men become loudmouthed, biased louts.

 
Last week inspired by that epitome of  bias, Jacob Rees-Mogg  (who was once described as “a barmaid’s idea of a gentleman”) Steve Baker a Junior Minister accused the Civil Service of working against the government before being forced to retract his comments. Meanwhile Donald Trump who never ceases in his mission to astonish  by his behaviour described the FBI as acting in cahoots with the Democrats against him. Likely? No not really but it was the tone of his comments that was alarming. Presidents don’t normally leap to conclusions. This pedlar of fake-news is an exception.

It’s time we started to do our homework rather than persisting in taking shortcuts and being impulsive. Time to realise first impressions are not always right. The Brexit debate is a case in point. On Question Time last week an enraged Brexiteer started shouting that he was fed up with all this talk and that – for heaven’s sake – this wasn’t rocket science, that Brexit meant Brexit which was a total divorce of everything with the EU. That’s bias not opinion and once embraced is virtually unchangeable. But we’ve got to stop it and start thinking again.