THE HARSH WIND OF WINTER

No. Not the weather. Rather it was the rowdy debate in the House of Commons and, specifically, the torrents of unseasonal, ill humour that we saw from the government backbenches. We have become used to it over time but something snapped on December 14th. People I know who have always voted conservative were aghast at the vituperation and sheer nastiness and declared they couldn’t vote conservative again. Was it because of the parties, the Boris buffoonery, sleaze or resistance to government policies on health?

None of these. It was the performance of backbenchers like Sir Desmond Swayne that made many feel they could have nothing to do with people like this.

I quote his remarks at some length because they were so distressing to many:-  

"On a typical winter’s day, between 200 and 350 people will die of flu. Do we hide behind our masks? Do we lurk at home, working from home? Do we demand that people provide their bona fides before going to a venue? Do we require people to be vaccinated as a condition of keeping their jobs?

Do we take seriously some of the extraordinary extrapolations that we have been given, particularly given the previous record? The fact is that those are things that might take place, and we have to balance them against the known costs and damage to enterprise, economy and society.

In the end, it comes down to a matter of opinion—a matter of our prejudice. Typically, we are capable of organising our lives and making those decisions for ourselves. We decide what our risk appetite is and what we are or are not prepared to encounter. Notwithstanding the carnage on our roads, which is certainly killing more people than covid at the moment, some of us still decide to drive. It is a matter of opinion.

It comes down to letting loose the dogs of war—getting the fear factor into it and getting the officials, the members of SAGE, Independent SAGE and SPI-M and all those who speak in their private capacity out there twisting the fear lever……

The Government, having administered this Ministry of fear, are absolutely complicit with their officials and organisations who have designed and delivered it. In doing so, they have abandoned any principle of social democracy or liberal democracy, absolutely beyond anything that we have endured in recent living memory, in the history of this pandemic. As a consequence, having abandoned what might have been their ideology, they are rudderless and so much more at risk of the opinions and predictions of the advisers to whom they are in hock."

In fact 1,460 people died in road fatalities in the UK 2020. 147,000 people have died of Covid so far. That’s about 5 times the number who typically die of flu.

Fear? Yes, most people are frightened and it seems more people support recent Government measures and accept it’s their social  responsibility to protect others as well as themselves. Unmasked people on buses are the exception now. Large indoor gatherings are being generally avoided. 

Should we not welcome debate? Of course we should. But as Sir Desmond, himself admits “typically we are capable of organising our lives” but typically we also find it helpful to have scientific advice. 

If we look at Europe we find most countries take a much tougher attitude to lockdowns and personal restrictions than we do in the UK.

This may not make this the most convivial Christmas ever but “typically” we are pretty good at making the best of things. So let’s do that now.

WE SHOULD TALK MORE (AND OTHER PANDEMIC LESSONS)

We are about to take a break. It’s not a full-blown, duty free, “do I have enough books and suntan lotion?” holiday. But I still have that new-chapter-in-my-life feeling.

My stark realisation is the past months have disappeared in a mess of self-absorption. Nothing remarkable achieved, failed or celebrated. So the effect of a new place and a new challenge is refreshing and will make me take stock again.

I was talking to a friend who has been working at home, 15 hour days, since the first lockdown (“at least I see more of my wife”). His review of his team seen through the prism of Zoom, WhatsApp and Microsoft Teams is there are two sorts of people. Those who thrive in a world of change and those who wither. Those who are constantly “reaching out” and those who retreat in silence. By the way I normally hate that Americanism - “reaching out” – but it occurs to me the victim in Stevie Smith’s poem should have been reaching out. Those who don’t will drown in depression.

“I was much too far out all my life
And not waving but drowning.” 

So lesson one – keep in touch, talk and listen. You don’t need to be face-to-face. You do need to be mind-to-mind. 

Next make the most of what you have. Being in isolation didn’t stop you reading unread books, drinking better wine, cooking a new dish. In the past year a depressingly large number of my friends have died. I wish I’d reached out to them more. I have spent too long in the presence of death to slither into a puddle of woe. 

Lesson two – seize the joys of life. Love it. It could be you next.

Celebrate the good things. It’s too easy to get depressed. I was taken out by good friends to celebrate a birthday last week. I was taken to the Hélène Darroze restaurant in London. She’s got three restaurants, London, Paris and Moscow; she’s also got three Michelin Stars. One is unlikely to forget the event. No, not the food which was very nice but a bit fussy but the people, their bonhomie, generosity of spirit and energy. That’s what sticks in the memory like a flashing light.

Lesson three – celebrate with a big spirit (no, fool, not an Armagnac).

Your life is a script which you can edit as you reflect any which way you like. My 98 year old mother in law reminisces in a brilliantly optimistic way. Her life is essentially “98 Years of Joy and Success”. Bad memories fall on her cutting room floor. Recently I had a spell of insomnia and a film of my life flashed before me (in black and white - what else?) The film might have been called “Cock-Ups, Blunders and Regrets”.  I’ve burned it. There are too many good things and fantastic people in my life to think about missed goals.

Here’s what, according to writer Tom McTague, Boris Johnson once said:

“All romantics need the mortar of cynicism to hold themselves up.”

“Cheerful scepticism” would be a better phrase because just being an optimist is irritatingly mindless and a bit blundering . We must just never stop asking questions.

Lesson four – Never stop thinking and questioning. 

And never forget to refresh yourself. You are not a machine. 

I’ve recently been feeling weary, stale and unprofitable (thanks Shakespeare). A break, a period of relaxation and eating out is what I need.

Lesson Five - Be kind to yourself. Take your body and mind away on holiday more often.

DO I REALLY CARE ANY MORE?

Well, actually I do but not so much recently. So long as we had the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, terrible infection and mortality figures from Covid and a rampant tweeting Donald Trump we had plenty to worry about and get angry about.

Suddenly Brexit is done, vaccinations are happening and, good heavens, at an alarmingly impressive rate of knots, and in a well organised way, and the Donald is silent and has gone. 

The sun is out and much of the world has snow. It’s chilly as winters should be. The critical issues that have been keeping us awake are resolved or resolving. There ‘s light at the end of all the clichés.

But things are getting worse. Because the little things like breakdowns in IT, a collapse in the Royal Mail meaning a friend called to say his Christmas card from us had only just arrived, a missed item in a supermarket delivery, oversleeping or an irritating paper cut have suddenly become issues.

With lockdown our world has shrunk. Events outside until now kept us aware of where we stood…maybe angry, enraged or alarmed but as part of a greater whole. Now we’ve become more inconsequential and vulnerable. I don’t get angry now; I just get irritated and (word of the week) peevish. Little things prey on my mind.

I tried apathy. But I do care. I don’t want to be alone. John Donne said:

“No man is an island entire of itself; every man 
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main…” 

 But Brexit has seen to that, Scottish Independence may go further and lockdown, social distancing, masks and isolation have extinguished togetherness further. Goodbye untrammelled travel across Europe, goodbye hugs, smiles and kisses. It’s grumpy time for many.

Lunch is a thing of the past, I’ve forgotten how. I was thinking about Odin’s my favourite restaurant (long since ruined and then closed by barbarian owners) where conversation spilt like wine across the table. Real Masters of the Universe food and wine. Real original thinking. Or was it more ordinary…a fantasy I’m remembering?

Talking of fantasy I see some pundit economists are predicting a third quarter 2021 through 2022 boom in the global economy. Well, I wish. But an awful lot of retraining will have to happen as unemployment figures soar in hospitality, finance, retail, automotive and travel. That lot accounts for 8 ½ million jobs in the UK alone.

The Marylebone High Street I recall in 1960’s was full of gaps, lots of charity shops in prime sites, drear and uninviting. Until now this envy of the retail world was pretty ghastly back then. So, for sure, recovery and boom may well occur but not for some time, I fear, for most of us. The acid test will be whether the start-up revolution about which I’ve enthused really takes off but if it does (and  I wish fervently it does) it will take a while to bed down.

I am neither a pessimist nor an apathetic. I still feel part of this game of life and that I can make perhaps a small difference. And I do have a solution. Given the issue that will drive the economy is not money alone but human energy, enterprise and resolution. So, when we can, I’d ship as many young people as possible to the Democratic United States of America, to New York and say “get a taste of this for upbeat, chutzpah and energy and bring that back here”.  Show how much the Americans care. It’s infectious but in a good way.

QUESTION TIME 2021

We are not all the same. So some of us will revert to our “normal” selves, some will go on retreat but for many, changes will happen. Don’t underestimate the scale of this event.

Will we want to live urban lives?

Not so much now I’d imagine. Recently I listened to the 1960s song Downtown written when all I wanted to do was live in London or New York. It’s lyrics rang true then. “Listen to the music of the traffic in the city”. Recently hustle, bustle and crowds have been found out for many.

Will we want to shop with big operators?
Big is the issue. I saw You’ve Got Mail a few days ago. It’s a love story but also a big v. small battle where the chain, Fox Books, beats The Shop Round the Corner. Not so in the future. Small, local shops are the current sales-growth victors. Provided they’re good value, providing service and home deliveries that at least match Amazon they’ll change the landscape. In Brighton the Council is earmarking money to protect small independent shops, pubs and restaurants that are the tourist draw.

Will we want to fly?

Of course but if it costs what it should (and will) when prices inflate … maybe not. £1500 to New York economy?

Will we want to go to work in an office?

Commuting was on its knees… puffing its last anyway. As companies realise that working (mostly – not entirely) from home is more productive the old vision of the trophy Mayfair office will disappear. Home-working and co-working spaces will be appealing alternatives. 

What sort of work will we want to do?

There’s a side effect to the furlough concept. Many people can get by on massively reduced incomes in a  lockdown world. The antiquated “wage slave” attitude might be more apt. Most want to do work that makes a difference, that improves lives. We want to be applauded too.

Will we want to go to church?

Shutting declining operations when the biggest users are the last ones likely to be allowed back (the elderly) was hugely damaging. Reminds me of the story of three vicars discussing how to get rid of pigeons  in their churches.   They consider shooting them, poisoning them but one has a fool-proof idea. “I capture them baptise them, confirm them, let them go and then I never see them again.”
Some smart thinking could repurpose and restore the essential role these communal and spiritual hubs have. Synagogues and Mosques are more on the ball already.

Will exams matter?

No.  Creative thinking is our future. Our education system doesn’t focus on this.

Does marketing matter?

Not as we know it. Advertising, PR and celebrity sponsorship just died.

Does growth matter?

Not in the way we thought it did. What matters is being clear about our values. Wanting to win is normal human behaviour. Just not at any cost.

Am I right?

Possibly not. But think about it…..

We have choices.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

There aren’t many reasons if you read the Guardian, the paper to read if you want to know what’s wrong with the world and why it’s a disgrace, and in which we read last week that we must steel ourselves against the likelihood that a vaccine will be discovered or the other gloom merchant who suggested this was all a rehearsal for “the big one” as in the Spanish Flu epidemic when the second spike in 1918 was much worse and much more deadly than the first one.

We are all doomed and if we don’t behave as though we are, we should be very ashamed. Pubs, clubs, churches are all closed and the sound of laughter is quelled. And we say we are following the science – as Matthew Parrish noted putting “the” in front institutionalizes it and gives it a phoney importance. The Law. The Church. The News. “The” makes anything it’s attached to more formidable hence “the wife” is more fearsome than “my wife”. Well the science is very different in three countries all with comparable death rates. In Sweden the science says ‘no lockdown’ and saunters off to the pub for a
beer.

In Belgium the science says ‘let’s stop the lockdown very soon’ and gets dressed up for a night out...roll out the barrel. In the UK the Scots and Welsh declare scientific independence because they want to show they can (their science) and England says the science says stay put and no giggling or having fun. But why can’t we be cheerful?

We ‘re having a record Spring ... forget Chaucer’s ‘sweet showers’ this is very bliss.

The birdsong is a harmony few of us have listened to before.  Consumption of alcohol has boomed by over 30% and according to the Sunday Times casual sex has peaked and Fifty Shades of Play has become a new norm amongst the young. Working from home has many unthought of benefits “Sorry Tom I’ll have to call you back I’m a bit tied up at the moment”.

Food is high on our agendas helped by the enterprising Mr Oliver, “rip it up, bung it in use a carrot or a tomato just use what you’ve got in the Fridge”. Just try his sausage, apple, onion and shaved parsnip melange – it’s scrumptious. Jamie makes the word caramelized sound so erotic.

As regards work I cannot believe command-and-control organisations with huge open-plan offices can survive.

Perhaps the most cheering thing has been to hear the O2 has been taken over and dressed up as a hospital in which 1800 people are being trained to be ready for work in the new Nightingale Hospital.

Inspiring I’m told.

Perhaps we truly are reaching towards a better world, one less travelled in which people are more respected. And of course if you’ve just lost someone or something dear to you I’m deeply sorry.
One thing’s for sure. Time doesn’t travel backwards so we cannot go back. Just forwards – positively.